BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221925
2027221925
2028221925
2029221926
2030221926

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN822023
Brook ParkMINNESOTA702025
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA582025
AshbyMINNESOTA562021
KendallWISCONSIN532025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA512025
KnappMINNESOTA462025
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN432025
MerrillWISCONSIN402025
Le CenterMINNESOTA392025
FestinaIOWA372025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA372025
EdenWISCONSIN372025
GlenwoodMINNESOTA362019
LoraineWISCONSIN362025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN362025
EvergreenMINNESOTA342025
MatherWISCONSIN342023
AnnatonWISCONSIN342025
CaledoniaMINNESOTA332012
StratfordWISCONSIN332025
CumberlandWISCONSIN322025
HatfieldWISCONSIN321998
Omro 2WISCONSIN322025
OsseoMINNESOTA312025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.