BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Yellowthroat has risen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Yellowthroat In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
19–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 19–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025221925
2026221925
2027221925
2028221926
2029221926

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN822023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA712024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA682024
AshbyMINNESOTA562021
CumberlandWISCONSIN502024
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA492024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN492024
KendallWISCONSIN462023
EdenWISCONSIN452024
KnappMINNESOTA422024
BriggsvilleWISCONSIN402024
MerrillWISCONSIN392024
AnnatonWISCONSIN392024
OsseoMINNESOTA372024
EvergreenMINNESOTA362024
GlenwoodMINNESOTA362019
GilmantonWISCONSIN362024
PrincetonMINNESOTA352024
Money CreekMINNESOTA342024
MatherWISCONSIN342023
StratfordWISCONSIN342024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN342024
FestinaIOWA332024
CaledoniaMINNESOTA332012
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA332024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.