BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 0.47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.360.040.69
20260.360.040.69
20270.360.040.69
20280.360.040.69
20290.360.040.69

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA162016
Murray LakeNEBRASKA72024
LingleWYOMING62024
Fort MorganCOLORADO52024
Arsenal 2COLORADO42024
AgateNEBRASKA42001
MarslandNEBRASKA42021
WakaTEXAS42018
TenmileTEXAS42019
YoderWYOMING42024
CheyenneWYOMING42024
KimballNEBRASKA31978
Agate 2NEBRASKA32024
KiowaCOLORADO22015
LamarCOLORADO22024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22002
ArsenalCOLORADO22015
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA22008
LoganNEW-MEXICO22011
HardestyOKLAHOMA21970
DoughertyTEXAS22018
ChugwaterWYOMING21980
Last ChanceCOLORADO11987
AbarrCOLORADO12024
GilpinCOLORADO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.