BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Yellowthroat In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-10%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.04–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.040.68
20270.360.040.68
20280.360.040.68
20290.360.040.68
20300.360.040.68

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PaxtonNEBRASKA162016
Fort MorganCOLORADO102025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA72024
LingleWYOMING62024
Arsenal 2COLORADO42025
AgateNEBRASKA42001
MarslandNEBRASKA42021
WakaTEXAS42018
TenmileTEXAS42019
KimballNEBRASKA31978
Agate 2NEBRASKA32025
KiowaCOLORADO22015
LamarCOLORADO22024
ArsenalCOLORADO22015
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA22008
HardestyOKLAHOMA21970
DoughertyTEXAS22018
ChugwaterWYOMING21980
Last ChanceCOLORADO11987
AbarrCOLORADO12024
GilpinCOLORADO12023
HudsonCOLORADO12024
Adams Co.COLORADO11994
BethuneCOLORADO12007
TrincheraCOLORADO12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.