BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Yellowthroat In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Common Yellowthroat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Yellowthroat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Common Yellowthroat In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Yellowthroat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 13–24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181224
2026181224
2027181324
2028181324
2029181324

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Common Yellowthroat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alder CreekNEW-YORK602004
WatertownNEW-YORK482012
PulaskiNEW-YORK482024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK372024
OgdensburgNEW-YORK352024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA342023
ParishvilleNEW-YORK332024
HinesburgVERMONT331994
DuanesburgNEW-YORK322024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK322024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA302024
SheridanNEW-YORK292024
NashvilleNEW-YORK292018
ArgyleNEW-YORK292024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK292024
ShaftsburyVERMONT292024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA282024
North EastonNEW-YORK272024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK262024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK242024
BranchportNEW-YORK232024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA221979
N Victory 2NEW-YORK212021
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK202024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK201998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.