BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Tern In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Common Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-96%Since 1968
35Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Common Tern has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 96% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±534.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.595% range
±534.7%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.001.5
20260.000.001.5
20270.000.001.5
20280.000.001.5
20290.000.001.5

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Common Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS641983
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA91996
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS72024
MiltonDELAWARE61975
HuntingtonNEW-YORK62022
Jones BeachNEW-YORK62013
Chincoteag WVIRGINIA62005
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE31991
JonesMARYLAND31968
SinepuxentMARYLAND31971
BerlinMARYLAND31988
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS32017
HauppaugeNEW-YORK32000
QuinbyVIRGINIA31990
MysticCONNECTICUT21973
Bethany BchDELAWARE21990
MadisonMARYLAND21987
Six PointsNEW-JERSEY22014
Ocean CityNEW-JERSEY22024
DoverDELAWARE11977
BlackbirdDELAWARE12014
Kittery PtMAINE12019
Piney NeckMARYLAND11967
Golden HillMARYLAND11983
NewarkMARYLAND11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.