Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Tern In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regions Prairie Hardwood Transition Wetland birds

Common Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-90%Since 1970

8Routes In Region

18Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Common Tern has collapsed in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2024, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±682.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2024

0.00Projected 2024 index

0.00–0.1195% range

±682.6%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2020	0.00	0.00	0.11
2021	0.00	0.00	0.11
2022	0.00	0.00	0.11
2023	0.00	0.00	0.11
2024	0.00	0.00	0.11

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Tern in Prairie Hardwood Transition.

Packertown	INDIANA	2	1977
Hamtramck	MICHIGAN	2	1984
Edwards	MINNESOTA	2	1983
Graytown	OHIO	2	1981
Packertown 2	INDIANA	1	2017
Indiana Dune	INDIANA	1	2019
Deckerville	MICHIGAN	1	1994
Omro	WISCONSIN	1	1980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.