BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Common Raven in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+248%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 248% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.3–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.3–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.81.14.6
20262.91.24.6
20272.91.24.6
20282.91.24.6
20293.01.34.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Common Raven in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO362024
PinonNEW-MEXICO192024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO72024
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO62024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO62024
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO52017
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO52024
Ft. DavisTEXAS52023
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42024
Bear MtnTEXAS42019
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO31992
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
AltudaTEXAS32023
ValentineTEXAS31986
OzonaTEXAS32022
Devils R CynTEXAS32024
Van HornTEXAS32024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO21974
JornadaNEW-MEXICO22024
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO22023
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO22005
EngleNEW-MEXICO21989
Hot SpringsTEXAS22023
Casa PiedraTEXAS22022
Salt FlatTEXAS22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.