BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Common Raven in Sierra Madre Occidental has surged: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+499%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Sierra Madre Occidental: up 499% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.7–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 16% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 9.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025129.015
2026129.215
2027129.415
2028139.616
2029139.716

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Common Raven in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA312024
Skull ValleyARIZONA292024
PinetopARIZONA272022
CutterARIZONA252014
Clay SpringARIZONA242024
Forest LakesARIZONA182024
PatagoniaARIZONA172024
BlueARIZONA161991
PomereneARIZONA152024
FlagstaffARIZONA132022
San SimonARIZONA112024
RedingtonARIZONA112023
AlpineARIZONA102023
Carr MtnARIZONA102024
Sunizona 2ARIZONA102024
WilliamsARIZONA82019
DragoonARIZONA82009
PrescottARIZONA72022
PortalARIZONA72024
Peña BlancaARIZONA62024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62024
MaineARIZONA42024
Bartlett ResARIZONA42024
SahuaritaARIZONA42024
RuckerARIZONA42009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.