BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Common Raven in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Raven in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 3.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 31% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 3.1–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.53.014
20268.53.014
20278.63.014
20288.63.114
20298.63.114

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Common Raven in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA901981
Calif CityCALIFORNIA452015
BarstowCALIFORNIA411998
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA362005
Willow Springs 2CALIFORNIA322024
Cutter 2ARIZONA262018
OnyxCALIFORNIA262015
TronaCALIFORNIA251997
PearblossomCALIFORNIA242024
InyokernCALIFORNIA192024
Organ PipeARIZONA182023
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA182024
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA182016
Ajo 2ARIZONA172022
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA172024
LukevilleARIZONA141981
LenwoodCALIFORNIA132012
AjoARIZONA122008
Silver Peak 2NEVADA122024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA112024
Lone PineCALIFORNIA102024
IvanpahCALIFORNIA92019
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA92013
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA92019
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA92021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.