BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Common Raven in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
258Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.3–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.3–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.51.21.8
20261.51.21.8
20271.51.21.8
20281.61.21.9
20291.61.31.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Common Raven in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA262024
Green RidgeMARYLAND162024
VindexMARYLAND152024
ArnotPENNSYLVANIA142024
McdonoughNEW-YORK112017
HixWEST-VIRGINIA112024
RioWEST-VIRGINIA111994
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA102024
W AugustaVIRGINIA102024
Iron Mtn.VIRGINIA102010
WymerWEST-VIRGINIA102015
MeridaleNEW-YORK92024
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA82024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA82024
Sugar GroveWEST-VIRGINIA82024
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA82002
OldtownMARYLAND72024
High PointNEW-JERSEY72024
MedusaNEW-YORK72024
E NewarkNEW-YORK72022
S Berne 2NEW-YORK72024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA72024
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA72024
ShanghaiWEST-VIRGINIA72022
Piney GroveMARYLAND62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.