BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Common Raven in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

29×Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.1–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.1–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 5.1–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.14.77.5
20266.24.87.6
20276.34.97.7
20286.45.07.8
20296.55.18.0

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Common Raven in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA162008
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA152019
SattleyCALIFORNIA132024
Butte MeadowCALIFORNIA122014
LumberyardCALIFORNIA112024
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA112024
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA102024
Pollock PinesCALIFORNIA102024
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA102024
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA82024
Little TruckeeCALIFORNIA82023
GeneseeCALIFORNIA72024
RivertonCALIFORNIA72022
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA72024
GoumazCALIFORNIA62011
WawonaCALIFORNIA62024
Eagle LakeCALIFORNIA52024
WestvilleCALIFORNIA52024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA52013
Hat CreekCALIFORNIA42018
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA42019
KernvilleCALIFORNIA42008
StrawberryCALIFORNIA42019
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA32019
WoodfordsCALIFORNIA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.