BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Raven In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Common Raven in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

22×Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Raven has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 22× on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Common Raven In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.57–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Raven in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 32% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.57–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.000.461.5
20261.00.491.6
20271.10.521.6
20281.10.541.6
20291.10.571.6

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Common Raven in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North EastonNEW-YORK92024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK92024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK82024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK62024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK62022
ArgyleNEW-YORK62024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA62024
BranchportNEW-YORK52024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK52014
OgdensburgNEW-YORK52024
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA51989
PulaskiNEW-YORK42023
SalemNEW-YORK32024
EllenburgNEW-YORK31989
ColchesterVERMONT32024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
W ShokanNEW-YORK22019
CatskillsNEW-YORK22010
GhentNEW-YORK22024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22024
HamburgNEW-YORK22016
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
BalmatNEW-YORK22007
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA22024
North PownalVERMONT22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.