BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Murre In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Common Murre in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-98%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Murre has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Murre in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17727.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17727.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Murre in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17727.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0014
20260.000.0014
20270.000.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Common Murre in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TaholahWASHINGTON2002008
Hazel CampOREGON152001
HoneydewCALIFORNIA32011
SitkaALASKA22024
Bodega BayCALIFORNIA22019
KetchikanALASKA12015
YakutatALASKA11995
Fish RockCALIFORNIA12009
WedderburnOREGON11991
Port AngelesWASHINGTON11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.