BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinWetland birds

Common Loon in Great Basin has collapsed: down 78% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-78%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
23YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Common Loon In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.02). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.02
20250.000.000.02
20260.000.000.02
20270.000.000.02
20280.000.000.02

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Common Loon in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ArdenvoirWASHINGTON21984
TriangleIDAHO11987
Iron SpringsIDAHO12011
Daniels ResIDAHO11997
BrewsterWASHINGTON12014
RimrockWASHINGTON12014
TonasketWASHINGTON12018
RonaldWASHINGTON12015
NighthawkWASHINGTON12019
L. WenatcheeWASHINGTON12023
YakimaWASHINGTON11997
Hanford SiteWASHINGTON11992
No CascadesWASHINGTON12007
Horn RapidsWASHINGTON12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.