BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestWetland birds

Common Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+103%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
31Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Loon has surged in Northern Pacific Rainforest: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Common Loon In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.12
20260.050.000.12
20270.050.000.12
20280.050.000.12
20290.050.000.12

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Common Loon in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Raymond 2WASHINGTON52024
OzetteWASHINGTON42009
HainesALASKA32024
Thorne Bay 2ALASKA32022
Sheep MtnALASKA22011
Thorne BayALASKA22012
YakutatALASKA22023
Harlequin L.ALASKA22017
Sitka (Short)ALASKA21985
IlwacoWASHINGTON21977
Cedar FallsWASHINGTON22013
SewardALASKA11984
CraigALASKA12024
KetchikanALASKA12021
Beaver CreekALASKA11977
CordovaALASKA12006
Thompson PasALASKA12021
Moose PassALASKA11992
Mitkof IsleALASKA12018
Zimovia StrtALASKA12024
Whale PassALASKA12022
SkagwayALASKA11995
ZaremboALASKA12022
Copper RiverALASKA12010
WedderburnOREGON11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.