BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Loon In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestWetland birds

Common Loon in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+190%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Loon has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 190% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Loon In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.49–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–0.9795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 71% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.49–0.97). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.460.94
20270.700.460.95
20280.710.470.95
20290.720.480.96
20300.730.490.97

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Common Loon in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake MoxieMAINE72022
Seboomook LkMAINE62014
St DavidMAINE62004
NewcastleMAINE42008
EastbrookMAINE42025
Carrying PlMAINE42024
SabattisNEW-YORK41983
GreenwoodMAINE32025
NorthfieldMAINE31981
Weeks BrookMAINE32016
ClarksvilleNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
InletNEW-YORK32017
ReedsMAINE22014
HarmonyMAINE22025
CastineMAINE22005
CooperMAINE22019
GreenvilleMAINE22022
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE22000
Clayton LakeMAINE22001
LudlowMAINE21996
Horse MtnMAINE22011
TelosMAINE22006
Priestly Br.MAINE21998
Baker LakeMAINE22009
YankeetuladiMAINE22007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.