BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Loon In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Common Loon in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Loon in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Common Loon In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.92–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Loon in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.92–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.901.9
20261.40.911.9
20271.40.911.9
20281.40.921.9
20291.40.921.9

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Loon in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BemidjiMINNESOTA121980
NebishMINNESOTA102023
DebsMINNESOTA92024
BagleyMINNESOTA62006
Tamarac NwrMINNESOTA62024
ConoverWISCONSIN62024
BigforkMINNESOTA52024
BlackduckMINNESOTA52022
Ned LakeMICHIGAN42024
CohassetMINNESOTA42022
BabbittMINNESOTA42022
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN42024
FredericMICHIGAN32001
Imp LakeMICHIGAN32019
Betchler LksMICHIGAN32024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA32024
BenaMINNESOTA31967
Grand ViewWISCONSIN32024
Land O LakesWISCONSIN32016
Union TwpWISCONSIN32023
FlambeauWISCONSIN32024
BerglandMICHIGAN22019
HermanMICHIGAN22015
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN22024
CunardMICHIGAN22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.