BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Common Grackle in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+198%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Common Grackle In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Edwards Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.005.5
20261.70.005.5
20271.70.005.4
20281.70.005.4
20291.70.005.4

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Common Grackle in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ManorTEXAS202024
Dripping SpgTEXAS142024
HarperTEXAS42021
BoerneTEXAS32019
LeanderTEXAS32006
KempnerTEXAS22016
Valley SpgsTEXAS12019
San SabaTEXAS12008
PidcokeTEXAS11995
AdamsvilleTEXAS12013
MontellTEXAS12009
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12016
Allen CreekTEXAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.