BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+250%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 7.6–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.6–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 7.6–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026266.546
2027276.847
2028277.147
2029277.447
2030287.647

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LingleWYOMING2602024
KimballNEBRASKA1742025
BereaNEBRASKA1412025
JulesburgCOLORADO1362021
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA1292025
HudsonCOLORADO1242025
PlymellKANSAS992025
PaxtonNEBRASKA962016
DaltonNEBRASKA882025
FlemingCOLORADO792025
NunnCOLORADO752025
BennettCOLORADO722025
Prospect ValCOLORADO652000
WaverlyCOLORADO582019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA502025
Fort MorganCOLORADO492025
DalhartTEXAS482025
LamesaTEXAS452025
AmherstCOLORADO432024
FlaglerCOLORADO412025
RuletonKANSAS412022
PanhandleTEXAS392025
CrawfordNEBRASKA382025
TwichellTEXAS372025
TexlineTEXAS362025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.