BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+191%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
122Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 191% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.3–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.3–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 37% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 7.3–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025266.146
2026266.447
2027276.747
2028277.047
2029277.347

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Common Grackle in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LingleWYOMING2602024
HudsonCOLORADO1542024
JulesburgCOLORADO1362021
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA1302024
PaxtonNEBRASKA962016
UlyssesKANSAS922024
BennettCOLORADO912018
Fort MorganCOLORADO842024
BereaNEBRASKA742019
PlymellKANSAS662024
Prospect ValCOLORADO652000
HookerOKLAHOMA602024
WaverlyCOLORADO582019
DaltonNEBRASKA572024
NunnCOLORADO522021
Agate 2NEBRASKA502024
FloydadaTEXAS502023
BrownsonNEBRASKA472021
AmherstCOLORADO432024
FlaglerCOLORADO422024
Prospect Valley 2COLORADO422023
RuletonKANSAS412022
StonehamCOLORADO362021
ChanningTEXAS352018
YoderWYOMING352024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.