BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Common Grackle in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+140%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
133Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Common Grackle In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.9–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 7.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026137.719
2027137.719
2028137.819
2029137.919
2030137.919

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Common Grackle in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA2052025
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA1812015
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA1782025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1582015
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA1462025
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA1312025
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA1302011
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA1202011
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA1012015
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA922025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA832024
Cabin CreekMONTANA752025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA682025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA512025
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA482011
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA472025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA452025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA432025
DaytonWYOMING422025
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA392022
BrandenbergMONTANA332025
CrookstonNEBRASKA322025
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA322022
AlbionMONTANA252025
Miles CityMONTANA232025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.