BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Grackle In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 7.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.00–6.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.80.007.9
20263.50.007.7
20273.20.007.4
20283.00.007.1
20292.70.006.9

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE452005
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS421994
St DavidMAINE332005
WarrenMAINE321990
HighmarketNEW-YORK302024
WatervilleVERMONT301980
BoundaryMAINE282016
WestbrookMAINE262024
HardwickVERMONT232024
RomeMAINE212024
Ft FairfieldMAINE202005
New HartfordCONNECTICUT181987
East HavenVERMONT182024
GreensboroVERMONT182024
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE172000
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT162024
Otisfield GrMAINE162015
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS162024
HartfordMAINE152023
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE152024
KasoagNEW-YORK152024
BentonMAINE141980
MilanNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.