BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Grackle In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
154Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Grackle has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Common Grackle In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 57% by 2030 — from 6.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.007.8
20273.40.007.6
20283.20.007.3
20292.90.007.1
20302.60.006.8

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Common Grackle in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashburnMAINE452005
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS421994
St DavidMAINE332005
WarrenMAINE321990
WatervilleVERMONT301980
BoundaryMAINE282016
WestbrookMAINE262024
HardwickVERMONT232024
RomeMAINE212024
FletcherVERMONT212025
Ft FairfieldMAINE202005
KasoagNEW-YORK202025
East HavenVERMONT192025
New HartfordCONNECTICUT181987
EastbrookMAINE172025
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE172000
New HartfordCONNECTICUT162024
Otisfield GrMAINE162015
LandgroveVERMONT162025
GaysvilleVERMONT162025
BentonMAINE141980
HighmarketNEW-YORK142025
GreensboroVERMONT142025
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK132017
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.