BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

11×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.30.0013
20265.30.0013
20275.30.0013
20285.40.0013
20295.40.0013

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA612024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA452024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA232010
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS172022
MamouLOUISIANA151979
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA132010
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA72017
DanburyTEXAS72024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS72023
MauriceLOUISIANA62024
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA61996
WinnieTEXAS62024
KatyTEXAS62024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA42021
IndianolaTEXAS42024
Port AcresTEXAS42024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS42024
HackberryLOUISIANA32011
EstherLOUISIANA32024
Rock IslandTEXAS32024
Loyola BeachTEXAS32006
ChinquapinTEXAS32024
LafitteLOUISIANA21988
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21982
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.