BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-92%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.87
20260.040.000.86
20270.030.000.85
20280.020.000.84
20290.010.000.83

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS62008
ProgresoTEXAS62006
Encinal 2TEXAS32015
KingsvilleTEXAS22005
HondoTEXAS22018
ZapataTEXAS11974
Mirando CityTEXAS11993
San YgnacioTEXAS11967
George WestTEXAS12010
CatarinaTEXAS12010
LaredoTEXAS12023
HeidelbergTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.