BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Peninsular Florida has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Gallinule in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 392% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±396.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+392%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±396.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 392% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.00–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±396.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.20.006.4
20262.20.006.4
20272.10.006.4
20282.10.006.3
20292.10.006.3

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AndytownFLORIDA651998
Wildernes PkFLORIDA332014
BrowardFLORIDA231973
Mabel 2FLORIDA192019
Shawano 2FLORIDA172011
Indiantown 2FLORIDA82019
Boca RatonFLORIDA61994
Holey LandFLORIDA62024
TamiamiFLORIDA51971
ShawanoFLORIDA52002
Dale MabryFLORIDA41988
SandyFLORIDA42015
Weaver StnFLORIDA42019
Lake BuffumFLORIDA42017
San AntonioFLORIDA32017
St LucieFLORIDA32024
Devils GardnFLORIDA32024
CrewsvilleFLORIDA32018
Merritt IslFLORIDA32008
Myakka HeadFLORIDA22011
Polk CityFLORIDA22019
Sunniland GrFLORIDA22010
AlturasFLORIDA21986
KenansvilleFLORIDA21997
IndiantownFLORIDA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.