BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Gallinule In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+72%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 72% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Common Gallinule In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±157.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 80% by 2030 — from 0.10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±157.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.000.47
20270.180.000.47
20280.180.000.47
20290.180.000.47
20300.180.000.47

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA112011
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA72019
OusleyGEORGIA72025
White HillGEORGIA32024
FairviewALABAMA21992
Rock ChapelALABAMA22023
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA21994
BelmontFLORIDA22025
PinettaFLORIDA22025
NewtonGEORGIA22023
DoverGEORGIA22000
ShilohGEORGIA22022
BargesGEORGIA22025
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA22025
GrangeburgALABAMA12005
Dauphin IsALABAMA11985
Alabama PtALABAMA11990
MadridALABAMA11999
ElbertaALABAMA11995
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12007
Broad BranchFLORIDA12003
MiccosukeeFLORIDA12023
Seminole HlsFLORIDA11992
CovingtonFLORIDA12019
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.