BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+59%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+96%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 96% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.47
20260.190.000.47
20270.190.000.48
20280.190.000.48
20290.190.000.48

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA112011
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA72019
White HillGEORGIA32024
OusleyGEORGIA32024
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA32024
FairviewALABAMA21992
Rock ChapelALABAMA22023
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA21994
PinettaFLORIDA22024
NewtonGEORGIA22023
DoverGEORGIA22000
ShilohGEORGIA22022
GrangeburgALABAMA12005
Dauphin IsALABAMA11985
Alabama PtALABAMA11990
MadridALABAMA11999
ElbertaALABAMA11995
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12007
Broad BranchFLORIDA12003
MiccosukeeFLORIDA12023
Seminole HlsFLORIDA11992
CovingtonFLORIDA12019
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA11975
BelmontFLORIDA12024
Hixtown SwmpFLORIDA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.