BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Common Gallinule In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

+356%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Common Gallinule has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 356% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Common Gallinule In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.04–0.42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.030.40
20270.220.030.40
20280.220.040.41
20290.230.040.41
20300.230.040.42

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Port AllenLOUISIANA82013
South BendARKANSAS72025
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI52023
MayflowerLOUISIANA22022
RamahLOUISIANA22025
GillettARKANSAS12025
CarlisleLOUISIANA11988
KeystoneLOUISIANA12009
ShawLOUISIANA12024
GibsonLOUISIANA12001
FrogmoreLOUISIANA12025
BelairLOUISIANA12024
Morgan CityLOUISIANA12018
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA12009
Baton RougeLOUISIANA12021
IsolaMISSISSIPPI11996
PawpawTENNESSEE11985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.