BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Common Gallinule In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionWetland birds

Common Gallinule in Prairie Hardwood Transition has collapsed: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Common Gallinule in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Common Gallinule In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2018TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2018 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Common Gallinule in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2018, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662018
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20140.000.000.05
20150.000.000.05
20160.000.000.05
20170.000.000.05
20180.000.000.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Common Gallinule in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North BranchMICHIGAN21988
Fall RiverWISCONSIN21975
BravoMICHIGAN11983
NashvilleMICHIGAN11981
BeldingMICHIGAN11988
GalesburgMICHIGAN12013
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN12000
Money CreekMINNESOTA11984
PrincetonMINNESOTA12006
LockportOHIO11972
GraytownOHIO11975
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN11992
OmroWISCONSIN11986
Beaver DamWISCONSIN11978
HebronWISCONSIN11983
ParisWISCONSIN11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.