BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Great Basin has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
219Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has risen sharply in Great Basin: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 206% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 20–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+206%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–7695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±142.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 206% by 2029 — from 16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 48 (95% range 20–76). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±142.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025471975
2026472075
2027482075
2028482076
2029482076

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DorrisCALIFORNIA19162019
Modoc PointOREGON5382018
Iron GateCALIFORNIA3812019
GardnervilleNEVADA2672012
Scootney ReservoirWASHINGTON2452024
Bear RiverUTAH2052023
HenryIDAHO2041983
Columbia NwrWASHINGTON1982022
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA1962024
MesaWASHINGTON1852008
UmatillaOREGON1842023
OthelloWASHINGTON1721991
RavendaleCALIFORNIA1662024
BridgeportCALIFORNIA1611977
NubieberCALIFORNIA1602018
Willow SpgOREGON1521971
FallonNEVADA1512024
Horn RapidsWASHINGTON1382024
LeamingtonUTAH1302017
Comins LakeNEVADA1252016
PotholesWASHINGTON1232023
LikelyCALIFORNIA1212024
BlyOREGON1112001
NighthawkWASHINGTON1072024
PrincetonOREGON1031985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.