BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.30.0027
20264.10.0026
20273.90.0026
20283.60.0026
20293.40.0026

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO732024
Delaware CrkTEXAS672015
MesillaNEW-MEXICO562000
ValentineTEXAS451987
DemingNEW-MEXICO301975
ShafterTEXAS281985
Red RockNEW-MEXICO212024
QueenNEW-MEXICO142021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO122019
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO102024
CanutilloTEXAS102024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS82009
Salt FlatTEXAS82006
JornadaNEW-MEXICO72024
Casa PiedraTEXAS72023
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO52024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO42018
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO42004
Sierra BlancTEXAS42019
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO32024
ComstockTEXAS32023
Black GapTEXAS32014
LangtryTEXAS31994
Chisos BasinTEXAS32024
GageNEW-MEXICO21988

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.