BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-69%Since 1971
21Routes In Region
55Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cliff Swallow has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.00–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029
0.56Projected 2029 index
0.00–7.195% range
±181.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.830.007.4
20260.760.007.3
20270.690.007.3
20280.630.007.2
20290.560.007.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Sunizona 2ARIZONA1002017
Mormon LakeARIZONA141971
Carr MtnARIZONA122024
BlueARIZONA101989
Skull ValleyARIZONA62024
AmadoARIZONA62018
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO62024
SunizonaARIZONA21988
PinetopARIZONA22021
PrescottARIZONA12019
PomereneARIZONA12024
Peña BlancaARIZONA11994
PatagoniaARIZONA12014
Forest LakesARIZONA12023
CutterARIZONA12014
AlpineARIZONA12004
RedingtonARIZONA12023
McnealARIZONA12006
RuckerARIZONA11993
ReserveNEW-MEXICO12016
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.