BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 153% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+153%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 153% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026170.0040
2027170.0040
2028160.0040
2029160.0040
2030160.0040

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA2622010
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA2332018
Calif CityCALIFORNIA821977
DatelandARIZONA662024
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA602013
NilandCALIFORNIA602025
Cactus ForestARIZONA542025
BrawleyCALIFORNIA482012
LagunaARIZONA422023
Casa GrandeARIZONA362023
Cutter 2ARIZONA332018
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA332025
FlorenceARIZONA301976
VicksburgARIZONA241989
GlamisCALIFORNIA212018
OnyxCALIFORNIA202015
BlytheCALIFORNIA161979
Cibola LakeARIZONA152024
New RiverARIZONA132016
Lone PineCALIFORNIA132025
CoolidgeARIZONA101985
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA102025
Hope 2ARIZONA82019
Parker DamCALIFORNIA81978
Haiwee ResCALIFORNIA61997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.