BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+4%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+205%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 0.00–41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025170.0041
2026170.0041
2027170.0041
2028170.0041
2029170.0041

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA2622010
Alamo RiverCALIFORNIA2332018
Calif CityCALIFORNIA821977
DatelandARIZONA662024
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA602013
Cactus ForestARIZONA482024
BrawleyCALIFORNIA482012
LagunaARIZONA422023
Casa GrandeARIZONA362023
Cutter 2ARIZONA332018
FlorenceARIZONA301976
VicksburgARIZONA241989
GlamisCALIFORNIA212018
OnyxCALIFORNIA202015
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA202024
NilandCALIFORNIA172024
BlytheCALIFORNIA161979
Cibola LakeARIZONA152024
PearblossomCALIFORNIA152019
New RiverARIZONA132016
CoolidgeARIZONA101985
Willow Beach 2ARIZONA92019
Lone PineCALIFORNIA92023
Hope 2ARIZONA82019
Parker DamCALIFORNIA81978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.