BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 690% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+690%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
212Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 690% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 3.0–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.75.3
20264.12.85.4
20274.22.95.5
20284.22.95.5
20294.33.05.6

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine GroveALABAMA7002024
RiversideALABAMA2272013
CartersvilleGEORGIA1072024
GuntersvilleALABAMA1062017
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE982011
Mt OliveALABAMA702024
OmegaOHIO612024
Smyer LakeALABAMA572022
StevensonALABAMA522024
MarshallNORTH-CAROLINA402024
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO352013
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA351970
OneontaALABAMA302023
CornponeTENNESSEE302024
TalladegaALABAMA272024
SoddyTENNESSEE261981
LinwoodGEORGIA252023
Jones GapTENNESSEE222019
GarrettPENNSYLVANIA212024
Pleasant HillGEORGIA202024
ChildersburgALABAMA181999
CamptonKENTUCKY162021
DownsvilleNEW-YORK162019
BaxterGEORGIA152022
ChurchvilleVIRGINIA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.