BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 155× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

155×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 155× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 15–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
15–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 43 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 15–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025251238
2026261339
2027271440
2028281541
2029281542

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI8732024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI1252022
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE1142023
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI1122024
TippoMISSISSIPPI642024
GillettARKANSAS612016
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI482018
EnglandARKANSAS472024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA442024
BlodgettMISSOURI432024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI402024
MayflowerLOUISIANA332024
RamahLOUISIANA322024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA302006
HughesARKANSAS252023
ShawLOUISIANA232024
South BendARKANSAS212023
Augusta 2ARKANSAS202016
Morgan CityLOUISIANA202022
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI182021
WilsonARKANSAS172024
Port AllenLOUISIANA152024
River RoadLOUISIANA132024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA122024
AugustaARKANSAS112001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.