BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 162× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

162×Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 162× on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Cliff Swallow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 17–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 29 (95% range 17–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026261439
2027271440
2028281541
2029291641
2030291742

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IsolaMISSISSIPPI1252022
River RoadLOUISIANA1112025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI982025
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI942025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI882025
BlodgettMISSOURI862025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE842025
MaynardARKANSAS792025
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE752025
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI482018
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA452025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA342025
MayflowerLOUISIANA302025
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA302006
RamahLOUISIANA292025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA272025
ShawLOUISIANA232024
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI222025
South BendARKANSAS212023
GillettARKANSAS202025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS202016
Morgan CityLOUISIANA202022
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI182021
Port AllenLOUISIANA152024
EnglandARKANSAS122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.