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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

33×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Cliff Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 5.4–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+162%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±169.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 5.4–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025203.637
2026214.037
2027214.538
2028224.938
2029225.439

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CanadianOKLAHOMA2282017
SmyrnaTEXAS1342010
BlancoOKLAHOMA1112016
NatchezLOUISIANA852024
ChandlerTEXAS812004
EastonTEXAS802013
Easton 2TEXAS792024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA552024
MassardARKANSAS422022
ZwolleLOUISIANA412016
Alexander StTEXAS402024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA322021
CheniereLOUISIANA302024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA272022
Smyrna 2TEXAS262023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA252008
StampsARKANSAS242016
New WaverlyTEXAS222024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA212024
Derry 2LOUISIANA202024
AthensTEXAS202024
Coal HillARKANSAS172023
LongstreetLOUISIANA132023
Chandler 2TEXAS122024
EvelynLOUISIANA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.