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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

35×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 35× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Cliff Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 5.2–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.2–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 12 in 2025 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 5.2–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026203.437
2027203.837
2028214.338
2029214.738
2030225.238

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CanadianOKLAHOMA2282017
SmyrnaTEXAS1342010
BlancoOKLAHOMA1112016
ChandlerTEXAS812004
EastonTEXAS802013
PhillipsOKLAHOMA742025
Easton 2TEXAS712025
SandbluffOKLAHOMA692025
NatchezLOUISIANA612025
MortonTEXAS582025
IndianolaOKLAHOMA572025
MassardARKANSAS422022
ZwolleLOUISIANA412016
Smyrna 2TEXAS412025
CheniereLOUISIANA402025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA322021
Town BluffTEXAS262025
Mer RougeLOUISIANA252008
StampsARKANSAS242016
MatoyOKLAHOMA242025
Coal HillARKANSAS172023
Derry 2LOUISIANA172025
Flat CreekLOUISIANA152025
Alexander StTEXAS152025
Burr FerryLOUISIANA142025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.