BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has surged: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

33×Since 1976
70Routes In Region
44Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Cliff Swallow has surged in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 33× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 162% by 2029 — from 8.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 5.4–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±169.9%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+162%Change by 2029
22Projected 2029 index
5.4–3995% range
±169.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025203.637
2026214.037
2027214.538
2028224.938
2029225.439

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
CanadianOKLAHOMA2282017
SmyrnaTEXAS1342010
BlancoOKLAHOMA1112016
NatchezLOUISIANA852024
ChandlerTEXAS812004
EastonTEXAS802013
Easton 2TEXAS792024
Flat CreekLOUISIANA552024
MassardARKANSAS422022
ZwolleLOUISIANA412016
Alexander StTEXAS402024
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA322021
CheniereLOUISIANA302024
Burr FerryLOUISIANA272022
Smyrna 2TEXAS262023
Mer RougeLOUISIANA252008
StampsARKANSAS242016
New WaverlyTEXAS222024
IndianolaOKLAHOMA212024
Derry 2LOUISIANA202024
AthensTEXAS202024
Coal HillARKANSAS172023
LongstreetLOUISIANA132023
Chandler 2TEXAS122024
EvelynLOUISIANA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.