BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 131× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

131×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
223Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cliff Swallow has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 131× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Cliff Swallow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 12–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 17 (95% range 12–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161121
2027161121
2028161221
2029171221
2030171222

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Queen CityMISSOURI1802022
GreenviewILLINOIS1722025
GretnaNEBRASKA1642018
RichlandNEBRASKA1252025
BarnardMISSOURI1182019
New PointMISSOURI1172025
LurayMISSOURI942025
SheffieldILLINOIS892024
HolcombILLINOIS852025
FowlerINDIANA802025
AliceIOWA791999
MackinawILLINOIS772025
WrefordKANSAS772024
TrentonMISSOURI762025
MelroseIOWA712025
Le RoyMINNESOTA712025
LucerneMISSOURI712025
IrvingtonNEBRASKA702025
OlsburgKANSAS602025
Deer CreekILLINOIS552024
ConcordILLINOIS552025
WabashINDIANA552025
ExlineIOWA552025
WashtaIOWA552025
GeraldMISSOURI542025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.