BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 9.1–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.1–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 29 (95% range 9.1–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025299.348
2026299.248
2027299.248
2028299.248
2029299.148

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChanningTEXAS6462018
PaxtonNEBRASKA5502016
TrincheraCOLORADO4052022
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA2902024
PostTEXAS2522024
YoderWYOMING1732024
JulesburgCOLORADO1522021
KiowaCOLORADO1352018
LingleWYOMING1042024
DaltonNEBRASKA922024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO902024
Arsenal 2COLORADO842024
DalhartTEXAS692024
GilpinCOLORADO672024
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO662022
Agate 2NEBRASKA642024
WinonaKANSAS622018
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO561978
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO562024
LoganNEW-MEXICO532024
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO521997
ElbertCOLORADO512024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO422024
LakinKANSAS412021
ArsenalCOLORADO402015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.