BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
118Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 8.1–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.1–4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 64% by 2030 — from 17 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 8.1–47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026288.447
2027288.347
2028288.347
2029288.247
2030288.147

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChanningTEXAS6462018
PaxtonNEBRASKA5502016
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA3022025
PostTEXAS2522024
JulesburgCOLORADO1522021
KiowaCOLORADO1352018
HudsonCOLORADO1222025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA1102025
LingleWYOMING1042024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO912025
YoderWYOMING892025
LoganNEW-MEXICO762025
GilpinCOLORADO742025
Arsenal 2COLORADO742025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO662022
TrincheraCOLORADO632025
WinonaKANSAS622018
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO561978
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO521997
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO502025
DaltonNEBRASKA422025
LakinKANSAS412021
ArsenalCOLORADO402015
Mica ButteCOLORADO371987
BoyeroCOLORADO322017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.