BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+26%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
192Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.00–25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0026
2026120.0026
2027120.0026
2028120.0025
2029110.0025

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CokedaleCOLORADO3522024
WellingtonUTAH1432002
HarmonyCOLORADO1202024
South ForkCOLORADO1082002
LudlowCOLORADO1072016
ValenciaNEW-MEXICO961997
DoloresCOLORADO771985
Wellington 3UTAH682024
PowderhornCOLORADO672023
BeckUTAH601987
Pagosa SpgsCOLORADO591982
YampaCOLORADO562023
AlamosaCOLORADO542024
Hill CreekUTAH531995
Lake CityCOLORADO501988
FayetteUTAH502009
Lost Cr. ResUTAH502015
Animas 2COLORADO492018
Piceance BasinCOLORADO452012
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO441987
GooseberryUTAH422024
TincupCOLORADO412024
DulceNEW-MEXICO412024
PecosNEW-MEXICO392017
AnimasCOLORADO382004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.