Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regions Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Aerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+157%Since 1968

62Routes In Region

58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Cliff Swallow has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 157% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.39–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029

1.2Projected 2029 index

0.39–2.095% range

±40.2%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2025	1.2	0.38	2.0
2026	1.2	0.38	2.0
2027	1.2	0.39	2.0
2028	1.2	0.39	2.0
2029	1.2	0.39	2.0

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.

Herner Crns	OHIO	51	2024
West Bangor	NEW-YORK	37	1998
Harrisville	PENNSYLVANIA	18	2011
Waddington	NEW-YORK	12	1998
Lucerne	OHIO	11	2024
Willsboro	NEW-YORK	10	2002
North Easton	NEW-YORK	8	2017
Nashville	NEW-YORK	7	2018
Byron	NEW-YORK	7	2007
Naples	NEW-YORK	6	2023
Grand Isle	VERMONT	6	1985
Cherry Hill	NEW-YORK	5	1998
Oneida	NEW-YORK	5	2010
W Shokan	NEW-YORK	4	2003
Branchport	NEW-YORK	4	2023
Ogdensburg	NEW-YORK	4	2016
Highland	NEW-YORK	3	1997
E Youngstown	NEW-YORK	3	2019
Alder Creek	NEW-YORK	3	1998
Salem	NEW-YORK	3	1976
Parishville	NEW-YORK	3	1980
Philadelphia	NEW-YORK	3	2022
Maysville	OHIO	3	2010
Espyville	PENNSYLVANIA	3	2024
Rhinebeck	NEW-YORK	2	2016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.