BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cliff Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
187Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.2–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 22 (95% range 6.2–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025216.137
2026226.137
2027226.137
2028226.137
2029226.237

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SpartaOREGON3792001
St MaryMONTANA2162008
DonnybrookOREGON2081997
RandolphUTAH1732024
BeaverheadMONTANA1422024
TwickenhamOREGON1402024
AlturasIDAHO1271987
MeeteetseWYOMING1172024
Willow Creek 2MONTANA1092024
Silver CreekOREGON1082024
HarmonyWYOMING1042023
BoulderWYOMING1002024
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO962014
Colter BayWYOMING951999
MoranWYOMING802016
Hayden ValWYOMING761986
St. Mary 2MONTANA732024
CascadeIDAHO661984
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO642024
Inside RoadMONTANA602021
Mtn ViewWYOMING532024
CodyWYOMING512024
NaplesIDAHO502022
Greenoagh 3MONTANA502016
ShirleyWYOMING502024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.