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Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cliff Swallow In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+16%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
188Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Cliff Swallow In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 5.9–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 21 (95% range 5.9–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026215.836
2027215.837
2028215.937
2029215.937
2030215.937

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Cliff Swallow in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
St MaryMONTANA2162008
DonnybrookOREGON2081997
BeaverheadMONTANA1802025
Ne EntranceWYOMING1522025
AlturasIDAHO1271987
SpartaOREGON1152025
YellowstoneWYOMING1152025
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO1112025
Silver CreekOREGON1082024
TwickenhamOREGON1072025
ShirleyWYOMING1052025
GeboWYOMING982025
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO962014
Colter BayWYOMING951999
RiversideWYOMING942025
Clyde ParkMONTANA842025
MeeteetseWYOMING832025
BoulderWYOMING802025
MoranWYOMING802016
Hayden ValWYOMING761986
CascadeIDAHO661984
WalcottWYOMING652025
Inside RoadMONTANA602021
Red RockMONTANA552025
Mtn ViewWYOMING532024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.