BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Clapper Rail In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clapper Rail has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Clapper Rail In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.17
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.16
20300.050.000.16

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DarienGEORGIA62019
Alligator PtFLORIDA52024
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA42019
Colonels IslandGEORGIA42019
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA42013
Dauphin IsALABAMA31990
Harrietts BlGEORGIA32023
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA32024
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA32025
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA22025
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA21987
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA22023
Alabama PtALABAMA11992
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12011
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12016
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12001
MiccosukeeFLORIDA11969
Port St JoeFLORIDA12013
Santa RosaFLORIDA11997
Cross CityFLORIDA12023
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA12018
St Vincent IFLORIDA12025
KellerGEORGIA11989
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.