BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Clapper Rail In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Clapper Rail has fallen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.17
20260.070.000.17
20270.060.000.17
20280.060.000.17
20290.060.000.17

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Clapper Rail in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DarienGEORGIA62019
Alligator PtFLORIDA52024
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA42019
Colonels IslandGEORGIA42019
DaleSOUTH-CAROLINA42013
Dauphin IsALABAMA31990
Harrietts BlGEORGIA32023
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA32023
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA32024
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA32024
SteinhatcheeFLORIDA22023
Ft GadsdenFLORIDA21987
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA22023
Alabama PtALABAMA11992
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA12011
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA12016
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA12001
MiccosukeeFLORIDA11969
Port St JoeFLORIDA12013
Santa RosaFLORIDA11997
Cross CityFLORIDA12023
Port St Joe 2FLORIDA12018
St Vincent IFLORIDA12024
KellerGEORGIA11989
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.