BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chukar In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGame birds

Chukar in Great Basin has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Chukar In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Great Basin is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Great Basin is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.002.5
20271.20.002.5
20281.20.002.5
20291.20.002.5
20301.20.002.5

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Chukar in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Catlow RimOREGON422025
LeamingtonUTAH342017
PromontoryUTAH222025
Willow SpgOREGON211971
AdrianOREGON192025
Sand PassNEVADA182024
Chimney Res.NEVADA182025
Blizzard GapOREGON182025
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA162025
Trout CreekOREGON162025
SutcliffeNEVADA151971
MidasNEVADA142025
Warner VallyOREGON132024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA122024
WendoverUTAH121974
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON122025
Fish CreekNEVADA112021
Johnson CanUTAH112024
WillisNEVADA102025
Battle MtnOREGON102025
AsotinWASHINGTON102025
Bald Mtn.NEVADA92025
AustinNEVADA92018
EightmileOREGON82025
YakimaWASHINGTON82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.