BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Chukar in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chukar in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Chukar In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Great Basin is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Great Basin is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.4
20261.10.002.4
20271.10.002.4
20281.10.002.4
20291.10.002.4

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Chukar in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LeamingtonUTAH342017
Catlow RimOREGON332024
Willow SpgOREGON211971
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA202024
PromontoryUTAH202024
Sand PassNEVADA182024
SutcliffeNEVADA151971
Warner VallyOREGON132024
AsotinWASHINGTON132024
MidasNEVADA122024
Toiyabe NfNEVADA122024
MikkaloOREGON122023
WendoverUTAH121974
Fish CreekNEVADA112021
AdrianOREGON112021
Johnson CanUTAH112024
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON112023
Alvord LakeOREGON102024
NighthawkWASHINGTON102024
AustinNEVADA92018
Piute MdwsNEVADA72024
Ruby ValleyNEVADA72001
Bald Mtn.NEVADA72024
Trout CreekOREGON72021
Goose Creek Mtn.UTAH72023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.