BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chukar In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Chukar in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-79%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chukar has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Chukar In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-93%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chukar in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 93% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.38
20260.030.000.38
20270.030.000.38
20280.020.000.37
20290.020.000.37

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Chukar in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShivwitzUTAH162024
Book RidgeUTAH92024
Baxter PassCOLORADO72024
BonanzaUTAH72006
CastletonUTAH41976
Douglas PassCOLORADO32024
Glen CanyonUTAH32016
Mesaverde NpCOLORADO22006
FayetteUTAH22019
WestwaterUTAH22024
ToroweapARIZONA12015
DeltaCOLORADO12001
Wray GulchCOLORADO11988
BasinCOLORADO12009
Desert ViewUTAH12017
HiteUTAH12007
ClevelandUTAH12024
NotomUTAH12022
Main CanyonUTAH11988
Cane Spr DesUTAH12000
Castle DaleUTAH12019
MoabUTAH11998
BicknellUTAH12007
Green RiverUTAH12021
Bullfrog BayUTAH12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.