BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Great Basin has increased: up 41% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+41%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
182Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Great Basin is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 4.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.2–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.52.26.8
20274.52.26.8
20284.52.26.8
20294.52.26.8
20304.52.26.8

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barnes ValOREGON571987
SistersOREGON382025
Lapham Res.OREGON332025
MacdoelCALIFORNIA322019
Blewett PassWASHINGTON322025
Bly 2OREGON302025
PaisleyOREGON292025
Magic MtnIDAHO262025
E. Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON252025
Camp ShermanOREGON201996
Crowder FlatCALIFORNIA192019
GiffordIDAHO192017
LakeviewOREGON192025
Ruby ValleyNEVADA182001
BlyOREGON182001
Picture FlatOREGON182025
Badger CreekOREGON172025
PauninaOREGON172025
LeavenworthWASHINGTON172024
HackamoreCALIFORNIA162010
Dougal ResIDAHO162025
RanchograndeNEVADA162024
DeschutesOREGON162025
Davis LakeOREGON132025
Bald Mtn.OREGON132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.