BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-85%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
114Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chipping Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.002.8
20260.180.002.7
20270.080.002.6
20280.000.002.5
20290.000.002.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA202012
RainierWASHINGTON192019
McchordWASHINGTON172015
Martins FyCALIFORNIA152009
MccloudCALIFORNIA142021
UmpquaOREGON142024
MendotaWASHINGTON141988
DaytonOREGON92024
Mt. AdamsWASHINGTON92024
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA81970
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA82022
Elk LakeOREGON82024
GreenOREGON82024
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON82024
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA72019
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA71996
AdairOREGON72024
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA62007
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA62007
French GulchCALIFORNIA62011
Secret ValOREGON62022
SelmaOREGON62024
South ElmaWASHINGTON62024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA52021
OrleansCALIFORNIA51989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.