BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
116Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has collapsed in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Chipping Sparrow In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.290.002.8
20270.190.002.7
20280.100.002.6
20290.000.002.5
20300.000.002.5

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AlderpointCALIFORNIA202012
McchordWASHINGTON172015
Martins FyCALIFORNIA152009
MccloudCALIFORNIA142021
MendotaWASHINGTON141988
RainierWASHINGTON122025
GreenOREGON102025
ProspectOREGON102025
CarrvilleCALIFORNIA81970
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA82022
UmpquaOREGON82025
DaytonOREGON82025
Vashon Is.WASHINGTON82025
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA72019
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA72025
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA71996
GarfieldOREGON72025
Elk LakeOREGON72025
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON72025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA62007
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA62007
French GulchCALIFORNIA62011
ShellrockOREGON62024
South ElmaWASHINGTON62024
LongvaleCALIFORNIA52021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.