BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Generalists

Chipping Sparrow in BCR 4 has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+1%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in BCR 4. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.14–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±208.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in BCR 4 is projected to rise about 71% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.14–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±208.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.810.091.5
20260.820.111.5
20270.830.121.5
20280.840.131.6
20290.860.141.6

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SlanaALASKA112022
NorthwayALASKA52023
SourdoughALASKA52024
Tower BluffsALASKA42023
DeltaALASKA42024
EagleALASKA32024
CircleALASKA22022
Chatanika RALASKA22023
Birch LakeALASKA22021
PetersvilleALASKA22024
Koyukuk Riv.ALASKA21998
LivengoodALASKA12012
ChistochinaALASKA12023
MonahanALASKA11996
Kenny LakeALASKA12024
ChickenALASKA12024
Swan Lake RdALASKA11995
Chena Hot Spring 2ALASKA12021
Lake LouiseALASKA12008
Seven LakesALASKA11995
Donelly DomeALASKA12024
Kanuti CanynALASKA12023
Mt. FairplayALASKA12019
Porcupine R.ALASKA12001
Kanuti LakeALASKA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.