BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-58%Since 1974
13Routes In Region
47Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Chipping Sparrow has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.97 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±280%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029
0.97Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.695% range
±280%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.00.002.6
20261.00.002.6
20271.000.002.6
20280.990.002.6
20290.970.002.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO62024
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
ToyahvaleTEXAS52012
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO42024
Salt FlatTEXAS42013
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32017
QueenNEW-MEXICO32018
Bear MtnTEXAS22024
Ft. DavisTEXAS22022
Red RockNEW-MEXICO12023
Hot SpringsTEXAS11993
ValentineTEXAS11974
Devils R CynTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.