BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-48%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±206.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 20% by 2030 — from 0.78 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±206.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.990.002.6
20270.980.002.6
20280.960.002.6
20290.950.002.5
20300.940.002.5

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear MtnTEXAS102025
ToyahvaleTEXAS62025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52025
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO42025
Salt FlatTEXAS42013
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO32017
QueenNEW-MEXICO32018
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22025
Ft. DavisTEXAS22022
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12025
Hot SpringsTEXAS11993
ValentineTEXAS11974
Devils R CynTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.