BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.31.86.9
20264.41.86.9
20274.41.87.0
20284.41.87.0
20294.51.97.0

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Happy JackARIZONA272024
Forest LakesARIZONA252024
AlpineARIZONA202023
WilliamsARIZONA182019
ReserveNEW-MEXICO172023
Mormon LakeARIZONA161975
PinetopARIZONA152022
SprucedaleARIZONA102023
Clay SpringARIZONA82024
FlagstaffARIZONA72022
PortalARIZONA62021
RuckerARIZONA62009
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA42021
MaineARIZONA32024
Carr MtnARIZONA22022
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22021
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO22024
PrescottARIZONA12021
Aztec PeakARIZONA11975
BlueARIZONA11986
PomereneARIZONA11974
SunizonaARIZONA11988
Skull ValleyARIZONA12023
Sunizona 2ARIZONA12002
DragoonARIZONA12009

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.