BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 26–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 32 (95% range 26–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025312536
2026312537
2027312637
2028322637
2029322638

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS1112019
CokesburyMARYLAND862024
Island CreekMARYLAND862024
WarrenCONNECTICUT772011
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT692024
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND642018
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY622024
HarmonyMARYLAND582017
Forest GroveMARYLAND582023
HolleyvilleDELAWARE562004
Tall TimbersMARYLAND542014
HughesvilleMARYLAND502024
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS462024
ElktonMARYLAND452024
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS452024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS452024
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS452024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE432024
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT422024
Kittery PtMAINE422024
Piney NeckMARYLAND422024
Quonset PtRHODE-ISLAND422024
QuinbyVIRGINIA422024
ShermanCONNECTICUT412019
MillsboroDELAWARE412024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.