BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 32 (95% range 27–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
27–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±4.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 32 (95% range 27–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±4.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026312537
2027312637
2028322637
2029322638
2030322738

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS1112019
Island CreekMARYLAND1002025
WarrenCONNECTICUT772011
CokesburyMARYLAND732025
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND642018
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS632025
HarmonyMARYLAND582017
Forest GroveMARYLAND582023
HolleyvilleDELAWARE562004
Tall TimbersMARYLAND542014
UncasvilleCONNECTICUT522025
MansfieldMASSACHUSETTS522025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS522025
HughesvilleMARYLAND502025
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS482025
Pr FrederickMARYLAND472025
Woodbury HgtNEW-JERSEY472025
QuinbyVIRGINIA462025
MarionMASSACHUSETTS452025
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND432025
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE422025
ShermanCONNECTICUT412019
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS412025
Kittery PtMAINE402025
St. George'S IslandMARYLAND402017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.