BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-13%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
403Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 16 (95% range 12–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161219
2027161219
2028161219
2029161219
2030161219

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY941997
PortersvillePENNSYLVANIA801988
FinzelMARYLAND712025
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY671995
SardisPENNSYLVANIA611974
WilliamsportMARYLAND572025
WaterstreetPENNSYLVANIA562024
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA552025
Piney GroveMARYLAND512025
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA492024
RectorPENNSYLVANIA461977
StoneybreakPENNSYLVANIA432025
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA432025
SmithsburgMARYLAND412014
StonecreekOHIO412025
Sleepy CreekWEST-VIRGINIA411990
JenningsMARYLAND402025
Green RidgeMARYLAND402025
HopeNEW-JERSEY401994
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA402022
MunsonPENNSYLVANIA402025
RydePENNSYLVANIA392005
RosecransPENNSYLVANIA372025
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA372025
RioWEST-VIRGINIA371995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.