BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+207%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
259Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 6.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.2–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.8 (95% range 6.2–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.45.88.9
20277.55.99.1
20287.66.09.2
20297.76.19.3
20307.86.29.4

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA722017
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA582017
BranchvilleVIRGINIA532024
Big SandyTENNESSEE482025
TupeloMISSISSIPPI462022
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA422025
NewsomsVIRGINIA422024
RoseNORTH-CAROLINA412025
CongletonNORTH-CAROLINA402025
NewvilleVIRGINIA402024
WardSOUTH-CAROLINA392025
Cypress LakesNORTH-CAROLINA382025
RaefordNORTH-CAROLINA372025
HumboldtTENNESSEE362025
SurryVIRGINIA342025
PinetopsNORTH-CAROLINA322024
PungoVIRGINIA312025
JamesvilleNORTH-CAROLINA292025
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA282025
Water ValleyMISSISSIPPI272018
BethelNORTH-CAROLINA272025
KinstonNORTH-CAROLINA252024
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA252025
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA252025
CokesburyNORTH-CAROLINA242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.