BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.49–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.49–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.431.9
20271.20.451.9
20281.20.461.9
20291.20.482.0
20301.20.492.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardARKANSAS102025
HarrisburgARKANSAS92019
SaffellARKANSAS72019
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI72025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY62025
DeventerMISSOURI42022
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE42025
EudoraARKANSAS31974
BlodgettMISSOURI32024
HughesARKANSAS21978
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
WilsonARKANSAS22025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22017
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
DellARKANSAS12021
RoselandLOUISIANA12024
RayvilleLOUISIANA11988
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12011
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11977
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI12023
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI12011
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI12021
KennettMISSOURI12024
PawpawTENNESSEE12006
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.