BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.49–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+94%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.49–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 94% by 2029 — from 0.64 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.49–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.421.9
20261.20.441.9
20271.20.451.9
20281.20.472.0
20291.20.492.0

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE122023
HarrisburgARKANSAS92019
SaffellARKANSAS72019
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY72024
MaynardARKANSAS42024
DeventerMISSOURI42022
EudoraARKANSAS31974
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI32024
BlodgettMISSOURI32024
HughesARKANSAS21978
Hickory RidgeARKANSAS22022
WilsonARKANSAS22024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS22017
BardwellKENTUCKY22003
DellARKANSAS12021
RoselandLOUISIANA12024
RayvilleLOUISIANA11988
DundeeMISSISSIPPI12011
CommerceMISSISSIPPI11977
ShelbyMISSISSIPPI12023
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI12011
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI12021
KennettMISSOURI12024
PawpawTENNESSEE12006
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.